Note: Some of these papers do not contain up-to-date information and are included only for potential historical value or interest.
Feasibility of modelling to predict influenza-like illnesses: Part 1 – Exploratory review
A review was undertaken over the period June 2013 to June 2015 to evaluate the availability and functionality of modelling software available at that time to identify, predict and model the likely occurrence and impact of seasonal influenza-like illnesses (ILLs).
This involved a review of available off-the-shelf desktop applications with predictive analytical capabilities and the feasibility by demonstration of the use of these applications these to model and predict the occurrence of seasonal ILLs in Western Australia (WA).
Three reports were generated by this project, which have not been updated since their completion, and are being made available for historical purposes only.
A paper was written in June 2013 which provided a snapshot of the use of predictive analytical software off-the-shelf software and examples of its capabilities for a range of purposes, such as warning systems and disaster management.
The review considered use of a range of health-related, social media data and other types of information that could be utilised to predict and model the occurrence of public health diseases, such as cholera, Lyme disease and Ross River virus, as well as predicting the annual occurrence of ILLs. This review was written in June 2013.
Click here to view or download a PDF version [343k] of this paper.
Feasibility of modelling to predict influenza like illnesses: Part 1 – Exploratory review – Figures
This paper which accompanied the June 2013 review contains a series of 26 figures (landscape format) generated by monthly data that had been used which covered the period January 2006 to October 2012.
Click here to view or download a PDF version [2 MB] of this paper.
Feasibility of modelling to predict influenza like illnesses: Part 2 – Evaluation
This paper evaluated the feasibility of the use of Forecast Pro XE, an off-the-shelf desktop software tool, to determine its utility to model scenarios involving time series data.
A constraint of the license was a limit to 100 rows which was able to analyse data in Excel and other data sources, though the number of columns was unlimited
Click here to view or download a PDF version [2.6 MB] of this paper.
Feasibility of modelling to predict influenza like illnesses: Slides
This set of slides contains an overview of some of the aims of the ILL project and examples of potential data sources.
Click here to view or download a PDF version [606k] of this paper.